Vassar Academic Calendar 2023-2024

Vassar Academic Calendar 2023-2024 – Suppliers are investing in new 300mm capacity, but this may not be enough. And despite the 200mm increase in demand, only Okmetic and new entrants in China are adding capacity.

Shutting down the supply chain for bare wafers. Demand quickly outstrips what wafer suppliers can keep up with, creating shortages year after year.

Vassar Academic Calendar 2023-2024

In 300mm wafers, the top five big players—Japan's SEH and Sumco, Germany's Siltronic, Taiwan's Global Wafers and Korea's SK Siltron—finally did last year, spending billions on new wafer equipment. The Big 5 have 90% of the market, but their "greenfield" manufacturers won't start producing wafers until 2024 at the earliest.

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Only Okmetic (#7 by market share) invests in 200mm, which produces advanced, custom silicon wafers for MEMS, sensors, RF and power applications. Other exceptions come from China, where a broad but rather fragmented group of wafer suppliers is entering the game. Industry experts say Chinese manufacturers have not yet mastered the quality required, but it is only a matter of time before they catch up.

300mm is where the volume – and the money – is, but chips made on 200mm wafers are on the critical path for many end products. As Okmetic's CCO and the new president of SEMI's Silicon Wafer Manufacturers Group, Anna-Rikka Vuorikari-Antikainen, consumers are not willing to buy cars without radar, washing machines without advanced sensors or phones that cannot handle 5G. These markets typically rely on chips made on 200mm wafers – and those 200mm wafers often have features unique to the market they serve. The volume is smaller and the product is often more complex. But with hundreds, if not thousands, of chips in the end product, bottlenecks can occur because no single chip is enough.

But waffle purveyors can't just step on the gas and spit out waffles faster. Dan Tracy, director of market research at Techset, noted that there is no Moore's Law for wafer manufacturing. Making waffles is a complicated process. He further noted that silicon wafer yields have recovered to 2007 levels in the past year alone. That was 14 years ago – and current ASPs are still 36% lower than in 2007

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Figure 1: Silicon Wafer Revenue Forecast (February 2022 Update). Silicon wafer sales revenue will grow 14.5% in 2021, eventually reaching 2007 levels. Source: Techcet

But now, with more capacity than ever before, prices are rising – and wafer suppliers are making record profits, primarily due to demand for 300mm wafers. And yet, he says, it's less about cost and more about supply chain stability.

2021 was a record year, Tracy said. Overall, wafer shipments by area increased 14% to 14.2 billion square inches, the equivalent of 1,700 U.S. football fields. Meanwhile, 300mm shipments grew by more than 13%, while 200mm shipments grew by more than 15%, representing a strong recovery from 2020. By 2022, Techcet expects total shipments to grow by around 6%.

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Figure 2: Silicon wafer supply forecast through February 2022. 2021 was a record year with a 14% increase in wafer shipments. 6% growth is forecast for 2022. Source: Techset

Techset says revenue for the entire silicon wafer market (including SOI wafers) grew 14.5% and will rise another 10% to $15.5 billion in 2022. This is the first time in more than a decade that the wafer industry has seen double-digit growth for two consecutive years.

However, this increase is in dollars and is mainly due to price increases rather than an increase in wafer production. Tracy shows demand for 300mm in 2022 to be around 7,200 wafers per month (wpm). But by 2024, even at 100% capacity, 300mm wafer production capacity will be 10% below demand. So some customers – especially Tier II foundries – are isolated

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At the same time, there is currently no shortage of small but fast-growing markets such as chips made on silicon carbide (SiC) wafers. However, if demand increases as predicted, there will be a shortage of wafers for them as well.

There is a lot of investment in 300mm wafers, but even with all that, demand outstrips supply.

The two largest wafer suppliers, SEH and Sumco, both based in Japan, together account for more than 50% of the market. Sumco shared some enlightening images in its FY2021 results presentation.

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Figure 3: Global capacity and demand forecast for 300 mm wafer (February 2022). Even with the addition of brownfields and greenfields, consumer demand will exceed global wafer capacity for years to come. Source: Sumco

Even with all this new capacity, supply may still decrease in the coming years. There are different types of 300mm drivers. It's not just about smartphones. Be it data center, automotive, computers, artificial intelligence, industrial products, consumer goods and many more. Everyone wants more chips and waffle purveyors can't.

Figure 4: Growth driver for 300 mm wafer. Smartphones are still important drivers for 300mm wafers, but as the industry changes, the need for more data centers and automotive chips is growing. Source: Sumco

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The biggest player SEH doesn't say much. In a call with analysts in December 2021, a company spokesperson said: "We have not made any changes to our strategy to gradually increase capacity on a contractual basis. Currently, the company is operating at full capacity, but we will not be able to meet the full demand. In 2022 and 2023, there will be abandoned industrial site investments Greenfield investments will only start to contribute in 2024. So the shortage of 300mm wafers is expected to persist for some time.

He added that the cost of SEH, including materials and equipment, is higher than the company had planned a year ago for the expansion of the investment. Moreover, equipment suppliers who produce highly specialized equipment for SEHs are also reaching their limits.

Some customers will get more sales this year – along with increased prices, he noted. But even with new capacity coming on line in 2024, "… they expect prices to rise further as capacity increases as new lines come on stream."

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Similarly, Sumco noted in its FY21 end-of-year call with analysts that there were "more requests for higher volume" from logic and memory customers for 300mm wafers, but it was "unable to meet the requests." Indeed, despite a new $2 billion 300mm plant in Imari, Japan, due to open in 2024, Sumco's long-term agreement (LTA) customers are now at 100% capacity by 2026.

For its part, No. 3 wafer supplier Global Wafers thought it would buy No. 4 Siltronic. The deal was due to close in January 2022, but was called off after all government approvals were not received in time. Global Wafers has announced that the roughly $5 billion it is setting aside for the Siltronic takeover will instead go toward capacity expansion. Of this, $3.6 billion in greenfield investments will begin this year and continue through 2024. A recent Taipei Times article indicated that "there are six brownfield and greenfield projects in Taiwan, the United States, Italy, South Korea, Japan and Denmark."

Walker Chemicals, Siltronic's majority shareholder, still says it plans to sell its remaining stake in the medium term. Meanwhile, Siltronic is doing well. Q1 2022 revenue was up 10.7% compared to Q4 2021, primarily due to an increase in average selling price, but also due to some brownfield expansion of existing plants in previous years. As for the sale of Global Wafers, when it became clear in January that a deal would not happen, Siltronic CEO Christoph von Plotho told German newspaper FAZ: "A lot has changed. Wafers are rare and prices are rising. From today's perspective, an unchanged offer is less attractive.

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Meanwhile, Siltronic is operating at full capacity and moving forward with a €2 billion investment in the new 300mm wafer FabNext in Singapore. Management describes it as sophisticated and very affordable. "We are proud to have long-term purchase agreements (LTAs) and advance payments from a number of leading customers supporting the construction of FabNext," said Siltronic. The first wafers are expected to be available in 2024.

In Freiburg, Germany, Siltronic is building a new crystal production hall and installing a new epitaxy furnace. It also has "modest expansion" at its Portland, Oregon location.

Korea's SK Siltron also invests in the production of 300 mm wafers among the Big 5. In March 2022, Fumi announced an investment of about $1.2 billion in a wafer factory in the National 3D Industrial Park. The company has been operating at peak volumes for the past two years.

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Yong-Ho Jang, president of SK Siltron, told Korea IT News, "Wafer investment is a risky investment because it is difficult to accurately predict and respond quickly depending on market changes. We supply high-quality wafers

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